Posted on by Bonnie

COVID-19 Update October 18

COVID-19 Update October 18

  • Total: 363 confirmed cases in Salem
  • 1 out of every 81 Salem residents have been infected
  • Salem Today: 1 new case, 23 active cases 

Community Transmission (per NH Department of Health and Human Services)

The overall level of community transmission is defined using three metrics.  A community is then assigned an overall level based on the highest-level determination for any specific metric.  

  • NH Community Transmission Metrics:
    • New Cases per 100k over 14 days: 
      • Scale: Minimal: <50; Moderate: 50 – 100; Substantial: >100. 
      • Today: 1053 cases; Daily average: 77.6 (Moderate)
    • New hospitalizations per 100k over 14 days:
      • Scale: Minimal: <10; Moderate: 10 – 20; Substantial: >20, 
      • Today: Total hospitalizations: 15 total; Daily average: 1.1
    • Average PCR Test Positivity Rate over 7 days:
      • Scale: Minimal: <5%; Moderate: 5% – 10%; Substantial: >10%
      • Today: Tests over last 7 days: 427 Total. PCR Tests over last 7 days: 40,398 Daily average: 1.1%
  • Today’s Level of Transmission: Moderate
  • Rockingham County Transmission:
    • New Cases per 100k over 14 days: 78.9
    • New hospitalizations per 100k over 14 days: 1.0
    • Average PCR Test Positivity Rate over 7 days: 1.5
    • Rockingham County Transmission: Moderate
  • Other NH Locations
    • Manchester: Substantial. (130.7 new cases; 4.5 hospitalizations; 2.2% positivity.)
    • Nashua: Substantial (152.2 new cases; 1.1 hospitalizations; 2.5% positivity.)
    • Hillsborough County excluding Manchester and Nashua; Belknap County and Merrimack County: Moderate
    • All other counties: Minimal

• • • • • • TODAY’S SPOTLIGHT • • • • • •

  • Once again, NH DHHS has not given us all of the data. The Active Cases Dashboard, the Cumulative Cases Dashboard and the Case Summary still have the same info as they had yesterday.
  • Another Salem resident has been diagnosed with COVID-19. For the past two weeks, we’ve averaged 1.8 new cases per day.
  • Persons being monitored is reported as “4,0\100.” Yesterday it was 4,000, and Friday it was 4,050. The last time it was over 4,100 was May 26.
  • NH has 971 active cases. The last time we had this many, was June 17.
  • Communities:
    • Notable changes in active cases from yesterday to today:
      • There are now 44 communities with 5 or more active cases. Those 44 communities make up 800 of the 971 active cases (82.4%).
      • Manchester (+12). Derry (+4)
      • Hampton (-10). (Yesterday they went up by 11?)
      • Yesterday, Atkinson had less than five active cases, but now has five.
    • Some of the communities with significant changes in cumulative cases: Manchester (+12). Nashua (+7). Derry (+4). Bedford and Hudson (+3 each).
    • Keene has had its 50th confirmed case.
  • For the fifth day in a row, a NH resident has died from COVID-19 today. 

• • • • • • DIAGNOSTIC TESTS IN NH • • • • • • 

  • New positive cases by my math (Total of today’s cases minus yesterday’s total): 69
  • New positive cases per DHHS: 70
    • 58 PCR tests
    • 12 Antigen tests
  • Children under 18 in new cases: 12
  • Total positive cases in NH: 9,694
  • Percentage of today’s tests that are positive per DHHS: 0.7%
  • Total PCR tests results reported today (Positive results plus negative results: 1,749
  • The daily average of diagnostic (PCR) tests reported from 7 days ago to today: 2,492
  • New negative results reported today: 1,680
  • Total negative cases in NH: 303,670

• • • • • • ROCKINGHAM COUNTY • • • • • •

  • Total cases in Rockingham County: 2,332 yesterday. Info not provided today.
  • New cases in Rockingham County: 14
  • Rockingham County: New cases per 100K residents: 4.5
  • Rockingham County 1-week average per 100K residents: 6.8
  • Rockingham County Positivity Rate: 1.5%
  • Percent of all cases from Rockingham County: 24.5% yesterday. Info not available today.
  • Percent of all cases from either Hillsborough County or Rockingham County: 77% yesterday. Info not available today.

• • • • • • ACTIVE CASES • • • • • •

  • Active cases in NH: 971
  • Active cases in Rockingham County: 210 yesterday. Info not provided today.
  • Percent of NH’s active cases that are in Rockingham County: 23.5% yesterday. Info not provided today.

• • • • • • OTHER TEST RESULTS • • • • • • 

  • New antibody tests: 33
  • Total antibody tests (No break downs of positive vs. negative): 31,764
  • The daily average of antibody tests reported from 7 days ago to today: 34

• • • • • • CHANGES BY AGES • • • • • • YESTERDAY’s Data. (Today’s wasn’t updated)

  • 0-9: +7 (3% of all cases. 6% of new cases
  • 10-19: +17 (8% of all; 15% today) 
  • 20-29: +21 (17% of all; 19% today) 
  • 30-39: +10 (14% of all; +9% today)
  • 40-49: +19 (13% of all; 17% today)
  • 50-59: +8 (15% of all; 7% today)
  • 60-69: +5 (12% of all; 5% today)
  • 70-79: +4 (7% of all; 4% today) 
  • 80+: +15 (11% of all; 14% today)
  • Unknown: +5 (0% of all; 5% today)

• • • • • • CHANGES IN SCHOOLS  • • • • • • 

  • The school dashboard still shows that a student at North Salem Elementary School is infected. (See screenshot below the calendar.) I am questioning the accuracy of this.
  • The student at Granite State Arts Academy, a public chartered high school in Salem, has been reported as recovered. 

• • • • • • RECOVERED IN NH • • • • • • 

  • Announced today: 34
  • Total Recovered: 8,256
  • Percentage of diagnosed cases that have recovered: 85.2%

• • • • • • HOSPITALIZATIONS IN NH • • • • • • 

  • New: 0
  • Current: 17
  • Total Hospitalized: 761
  • Percentage of those who have been infected that have been hospitalized: 7.85%

• • • • • • DEATHS IN NH • • • • • • 

  • Lives lost today: 1
  • Persons over 60 years of age who died today: 1
  • Persons under 60 years of age who died today: 0
  • Total fatalities in NH associated with COVID-19: 467
  • NH Residents diagnosed with COVID-19 that died: 4.82%
  • Lives lost in Rockingham today: 0

These are not simply numbers. We must not forget that these are all someone’s husband or wife, mother or father, sister or brother, son or daughter, friend or neighbor.

The number of hospitalizations in NH has dropped down to less than 8% of those diagnosed with COVID. Why is that? 

Possible reasons: 

  1. The victims are younger, and younger patients seem to have less serious cases.
  2. The number of cases has surged, and the hospitalizations haven’t caught up with the new cases.
  3. The amount of exposure to an infected person (viral load) impacts the seriousness of the case. Masks reduce the amount of exposure to the airborne virus, so people are getting milder cases.

My theory is that it is a combination of these three scenarios. What are your theories?

Please stay safe, and always, be kind.

~Bonnie

As far as I have been able to determine, North Salem Elementary and Woodbury Middle School have not had an infection, despite what the School Dashboard says. Also, Salem High School has only had one case, not two. I don’t know anything about GSAA.

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Useful links

Sources used to create these reports:

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