COVID-19 Update 30 Aug 2021

The next update is scheduled for next MONDAY, September 6, which is Labor Day. Have a safe holiday.

NH’S NUMBERS ARE GROWING RAPIDLY. Our new cases, active cases and hospitalizations are where we were in mid to late April. Our new cases are also about the same as we had mid-November. We went from there to peak (1,317 on January 3) in about 52 days. Our active/current cases are now about the same as we had mid-November. We went from there to peak (6,994 on December 27) in about 43 days. The number of people currently hospitalized is about the same as we had late-November. We went from there to peak (317 on December 27) in 37 days. IF WE AREN’T CAREFUL, WE WILL SOON BE BACK TO WHERE WE WERE LAST DECEMBER/JANUARY, WHEN THINGS WERE AT THEIR WORST. This is entirely preventable.

SALEM: (2.2% of NH’s population)

1 out of every NINE Salem residents has been officially diagnosed with COVID-19.
Salem since last update: 53 new cases.
Total: 3,150 confirmed cases in Salem
We now have 65 active cases (45 last week)
1 out of every 9 Salem residents has been infected.
Salem’s new cases per 100K for 14 days: 324 (211 last week)
Salem’s Positivity Rate for the past 2 weeks: 7.8%. (Last week: 6.5%).
Salem’s new cases account for 2.2% of the new cases reported this week. Last week we were responsible for 1.3%. (Salem has 2.2% of NH’s population.)
Fully vaccinated Salem residents: 14,305 (47.8%). Change from last week: +10 people (+0.0%).
Partially vaccinated Salem residents: 15,373 (51.4%). Change from last week: +11 people (0.0%).

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

New cases of COVID-19 cases in NH this week: 2,358. (1,978 last week)
1 out of every 13 NH residents has been infected.
Of the new cases this week, 71 were healthcare workers, and 65 were in long-term care facilities. (49 and 38 last week)
Active COVID-19 cases in NH: 2,927 (2,324 last week; 155 active cases on June 28.)
Recovered in NH this week: 1,555. (1,213 last week.)
State Level of Transmission: Substantial in all counties
New patients hospitalized this week because of COVID-19: 9 (Several days this week were NEGATIVE numbers.)
Current patients hospitalized because of COVID-19: 107 (61 one week ago)
New admissions to ICU this week because of COVID-19: 2
New deaths attributed to COVID-19 reported in NH this week: 17 (7 last week.)
Total NH individuals fully vaccinated: About 54.0% of our population, a one-week increase of 0.0%. 59.0% are partially vaccinated, a one-week increase of 0.0%.

On Tuesday, August 24, 2021, DHHS announced 290 new positive test results for COVID-19. Today’s results include 123 people who tested positive by PCR test and 167 who tested positive by antigen test. There are now 2,377 current COVID-19 cases diagnosed in New Hampshire. [Of the new cases: Rockingham County: 89 (30.7%); Salem: 7 (2.4%)] On this date, NH DHHS also announced two additional deaths: A male, aged 70-70, from Rockingham County (Week of June 14), and a female, aged 40-49, from Rockingham County (week of June 28).

On Wednesday, August 25, 2021, DHHS announced 329 new positive test results for COVID-19. Today’s results include 188 people who tested positive by PCR test and 141 who tested positive by antigen test. There are now 2,524 current COVID-19 cases diagnosed in New Hampshire. [Rockingham County: 72 (21.9%); Salem: 7 (2.3%)]

On Thursday, August 26, 2021, DHHS announced 357 new positive test results for COVID-19. Today’s results include 231 people who tested positive by PCR test and 126 who tested positive by antigen test. There are now 2,736 current COVID-19 cases diagnosed in New Hampshire. [Rockingham County: 83 (23.3 %); Salem: 12 (3.7%)]

On Friday, August 27, 2021, DHHS announced 356 new positive test results for COVID-19. Today’s results include 185 people who tested positive by PCR test and 171 who tested positive by antigen test. There are now 2,798 current COVID-19 cases diagnosed in New Hampshire. [Rockingham County: 83 (23.3%); Salem: 6 (1.9%)]

On Monday, August 30, 2021, DHHS announced 213 new positive test results for COVID-19 for Sunday, August 29. Today’s results include 123 people who tested positive by PCR test and 90 who tested positive by antigen test. DHHS also announced 384 cases from Friday, August 27 (211 by PCR test and 173 by antigen test), and 429 cases from Saturday, August 28 (273 by PCR and 156 by antigen test). There are now 2,927 current COVID-19 cases diagnosed in New Hampshire. [Rockingham County: 206 (20.1%); Salem: 21 (2.3%)]

Each day, DHHS says that “Several cases are still under investigation. Additional information from ongoing investigations will be incorporated into future COVID-19 updates.” Percentages shown are % of new cases.

• • • • • • DIAGNOSTIC TESTS IN NH • • • • • •

Total people who have tested positive: 107,474 (105,302 last week)
New positive cases this week by my math: 2,172 (1,840 last week)
New positive cases per DHHS: 2,358 (1,978 last week)
Rockingham County (22.78% of NH’s population)
- Total positive tests in Rockingham County: 26,239 (25,706 last week)
- New cases this week: 533 (416 last week)
- % of this week’s cases from Rockingham County: 24.5%

• • • • • NEW CASES • • • • • •

DHHS reports that the new cases this week reside in the following counties and NH’s two major cities:

Belknap: 136
Carroll: 98
Cheshire: 127
Coos: 52
Grafton: 137
Manchester: 179
Merrimack: 206
Nashua: 95
Rest of Hillsborough: 333
Rockingham County: 531
Strafford: 230
Sullivan: 39

The county of residence is being determined for 80 new cases. Several cases are still under investigation. Additional information from ongoing investigations will be incorporated into future COVID-19 updates.

• • • • • ACTIVE CASES • • • • • •

NH has 2,927 active cases. Last week we had 2,324. We were down to 155 cases as recently as June 28, just 2 months ago.
All counties have active cases: (Current vs. Last week)
- Belknap: 181 (175 last week)
- Carroll: 115 (70)
- Cheshire: 146 (125)
- Coos: 56 (36)
- Grafton: 164 (138)
- Manchester: 232 (197)
- Merrimack: 246 (185)
- Nashua: 130 (136)
- Rest of Hillsborough: 418 (302)
- Rockingham: 680 (483)
- Strafford: 288 (199)
- Sullivan: 50 (71)
- Unknown: 236 (205)
126 communities now have 5 or more active cases, accounting for 2,564 (87.6%) of the 2,927 total active cases. Last week it was 106 communities, responsible for 2,143 total active cases (92.2%) of the 2,324 total active cases. (All others have less than 5 active cases.)
7 communities have more active cases than Salem. (No change in the count from last week, although some communities have moved off the list and were replaced by others): Manchester, Nashua, Rochester, Derry, Merrimack, Concord, and Laconia. Dover and Salem both have 65.
- Salem (27; was 18 last week)

• • • • • CUMULATIVE CASES • • • • • •

1 out of every 9 Salem residents has been infected
1 out of every 12 residents of Rockingham County
1 out of every 13 residents of NH have been infected

• • • • • • RECOVERED • • • • • •

Total recovered: 103,131 (100,576 last week)
Recovered this week: 819 (593 last week)
Percentage of diagnosed cases that have recovered: 96.0% (98.3% 5 weeks ago.)

• • • • • COMMUNITY TRANSMISSION • • • • • •

Recent CDC recommendations are based on Community Transmissions.

Per NH Department of Health and Human Services some time ago: The overall level of community transmission is defined using three metrics. A community is then assigned an overall level based on the highest-level determination for any specific metric. NH Metrics are:

New Cases per 100k over 14 days: Scale: Minimal: <50; Moderate: 50 – 100; Substantial: >100.

New Hospitalizations per 100k over 14 days: Scale: Minimal: <10; Moderate: 10 – 20; Substantial: >20.

Average PCR Test Positivity Rate over 7 days: Scale: Minimal: <5%; Moderate: 5% – 10; Substantial: >10%

More recently, they stopped the hospital metric, and now only report the New Cases per 100K, and Average PCR Test Positivity Rate.

NH Level of Transmission: Substantial (Last week: Substantial)
NH New Cases per 100K over 14 days: 187.5 (139.9 last week)

7-Day Total Test Positivity Rate: 5.1%

Every county in NH, as well as Manchester and Nashua, are at Substantial risk for community transmission.

Cases per 100K residents:

NH: 311 (NH last week: 243)
- Belknap: 473 (362 last week)
- Carroll: 327 (235 last week)
- Cheshire: 297 (231 last week)
- Coos: 273 (168 last week)
- Grafton: 279 (221 last week)
- Manchester: 315 (262 last week)
- Merrimack: 243 (190 last week)
- Nashua: 238 (197 last week)
- Rest of Hillsborough excluding Manchester and Nashua: 266 (205 last week)
- Rockingham: 306 (219 last week)
- Strafford: 307 (230 last week)
- Sullivan: 218 (257 last week)

Positivity Rate:
- NH: 5.4% (was 5.6% last week)
- Belknap: 5.8% (8.1% last week)
- Carroll: 6.7% (6.3% last week)
- Cheshire: 3.5% (4.8% last week)
- Coos: 7.5% (7.3% last week)
- Grafton: 2.0% (2.8% last week)
- Manchester: 5.4 (5.3% last week)
- Merrimack: 5.1% (4.3% last week)
- Nashua: 4.6% (6.3% last week)
- Rest of Hillsborough excluding Manchester and Nashua: 6.7% (6.1% last week)
- Rockingham: 7.4% (6.6% last week)
- Strafford: 8.6% (7.0% last week)
- Sullivan: 2.9% (4.5% last week)

There are 109 NH communities with a positivity rate of more than 0. (93 a week ago). There are 107 communities with a positivity rate higher than 2%. (91 a week ago). 81 communities have more than 5% (72 a week ago). 28communities have a positivity rate of more than 10%. (18 a week ago.)

• • • • • • HOSPITALIZATIONS IN NH • • • • • •

Currently hospitalized: 119 (Last week: 107)
Total hospitalized patients: 1,709
New people hospitalized from NH: 9
Percentage of those who have been infected that have been hospitalized: 1.6%
Total admitted to ICU: 506
New ICU admissions this week: 2
Total hospitalized patients from Rockingham County: 375
New hospitalized patients from Rockingham County: 3 since last week

• • • • • • DEATHS IN NH • • • • • •

Total fatalities in NH associated with COVID-19: 1416
Lives lost this week: 14
Persons over 60 years of age who died this week: 13
Persons under 60 years of age who died this week: 1
NH Residents diagnosed with COVID-19 that died: 1.32%
Total lives lost in Rockingham County: 278
Lives lost in Rockingham County this week: 4

• • • • • • CHANGES BY AGES • • • • • •

413 children under 18 are included in this week’s new cases. (352 last week, 244 two weeks ago.)
17.5% of new cases announced by DHHS this week are kids under 18 years old. (17.8% last week, 17.3 two weeks ago.)
With school starting on Wednesday (at least in Salem), I am very concerned that these numbers will soon increase.
Under 60: 1,796 new cases this week; 2 hospitalizations, 1 deaths
Last week: 1,114 new cases; 5 hospitalizations, 1 deaths
60+: 375 new cases; 7 hospitalizations; 13 deaths
Last week: 230 new cases; 8 hospitalizations; 5 deaths

(Totals showing changes since last Monday.)

0-9: 6% of Total cases: 6392 (+204); Hospitalizations: 14 (-1); Deaths: 0
10-19: 12% of Total cases: 13355 (+261); Hospitalizations: 13 (-1); Deaths: 0
20-29: 20% of Total cases: 21447 (+387); Hospitalizations: 39 (-1); Deaths: 1
30-39: 15% of Total cases: 16014 (+370); Hospitalizations: 74 (+1); Deaths: 7
40-49: 13% of Total cases: 14135 (+292); Hospitalizations: 126 (+2); Deaths: 14 (+1)
50-59: 15% of Total cases: 16227 (+282); Hospitalizations: 243 (+2); Deaths: 36
60-69: 10% of Total cases: 10499 (+227); Hospitalizations: 386 (+2); Deaths: 146 (+2)
70-79: 5% of Total cases: 5198 (+98); Hospitalizations: 418; Deaths: 341 (+3)
80+: 4% of Total cases: 4142 (+50); Hospitalizations: 396 (+5); Deaths: 871 (+8)

• • • • • • Institutional Outbreaks in NH • • • • • •

NH DHHS reported two new institutional outbreaks on Thursday, August 26, bringing the total to 6 institutions. The new locations are Alpine Health Center (18 residents, 11 staff) and Maple Wood Cheshire County Nursing Home (2 residents and 1 staff).

Remaining on the list is Epsom Health Center with 7 residents, and 8 staff having been infected (no change since last week), the Federal Correctional Institution in Berlin with 36 residents and 3 (+1) staff, Laconia Rehabilitation Center, with 18 residents (+5 from last week), and 8 staff (same as last week), with two deaths, and Rockingham County Nursing Home and Rehab, which is still reporting 2 resident cases and 3 staff cases (unchanged from last week).

No institutions were removed from the outbreak list this week. All other outbreaks, which can be seen here, were closed as of this outbreak update.

• • • • • • Vaccinations in NH • • • • • •

NH DHHS reports 756,210 (54.0%) people are fully vaccinated, an increase of 977 people (0.0%) since last week. (2,042 last week.)

829,210 (59.0%) NH residents have been partially vaccinated, an increase of 1,180 (0.0%)
people since last week. (4,840 last week)

These are not simply numbers. We must not forget that these are all someone’s husband or wife, mother or father, sister or brother, son or daughter, friend or neighbor.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Hello, Salem!

Here are some random thoughts from this past week:

The numbers are becoming more and more concerning for both Salem and NH.

Pfizer Approval:

The FDA has issued full approval of Pfizer’s two-dose Covid vaccine for ages 16 and up. A CDC panel has unanimously endorsed this approval. It will now be marketed as Comirnaty (koe-mir’-na-tee). Children aged 12-15 are eligible for this under the Emergency Use Authorization. The vaccine could be approved for kids aged 5-11 by winter.

Breakthrough COVID-19 symptoms:

While some vaccinated people are getting COVID, it is still rare, and 99.9% of all recent hospitalizations and deaths associated with COVID-19 are people who are not vaccinated.
CDC reports that 79% of those who are found to have breakthough infections have a cough, headache, sore throat, myalgia and fever.
NBC says approximately 1 in 900 vaccinated people have had breakthough infections. The vast majority of those had mild or no symptoms.

Variants:

Some of the symptoms of the new Delta variant are different than the traditional COVID-19 symptoms. They can include:

SNEEZING more than usual
Sore throat
Runny nose or sinus congestion
Fever
Headaches
Stomach pain
Loss of appetite
Vomiting
Nausea
Joint pain
Hearing loss
Diarrhea
Small blood clots
Shortness of breath

The symptoms of the Lambda variant are similar to that of the initial COVID-19 strain.

Per WMUR, as of August 27, NH had:

Number of people diagnosed with COVID-19: 106,525
Number of B.1.1.7 variant (Alpha; UK) cases: 1,250

Number of B.1.351 variant (Beta; South Africa) cases: 2 (No change)
Number of P.1 variant (Gamma; Brazil) cases: 203
Number of B.1.617.2 variant (Delta; India) cases: 363

Since not every positive case is sequenced, these numbers aren’t as useful as they might be, especially since we don’t know how many are tested.

At the Governor’s press conference on 8/12, the Governor’s team reported that just under 40% of all positive tests that were examined for variants were positive with the Delta variation. It would be helpful if they would provide the percentage of variants tested regularly.

Additional suggested reading:

I’ve long suspected that our DNA could impact on how we respond to the virus. Apparently, I’m not the only one. A new study reports that those with a mutation in the MTHFR gene, which increases Homocysteine levels, may have a more difficult time with COVID-19.

Prior to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the efficacy of community mask wearing to reduce the spread of respiratory infections was controversial because there were no solid relevant data to support their use. During the pandemic, the scientific evidence has increased. Compelling data now demonstrate that community mask wearing is an effective nonpharmacologic intervention to reduce the spread of this infection, especially as source control to prevent spread from infected persons, but also as protection to reduce wearers’ exposure to infection. This article was published in the prestigious JAMA (Journal of American Medical Association) in February, but is still relevant now as case counts escalate, and more businesses and schools are requiring masks.

Here is a decent explanation of why vaccine’s are effective, despite the breakthrough cases.

How to Calculate Delta-Variant Risks for Children This Fall. Is school safe? Soccer? Birthday parties? Doctors suggest some principles to guide decision-making for parents with unvaccinated children. Story here.

Next Monday is Labor Day. I anticipate that NH DHHS will not provide their info that day. Unfortunately, due to other commitments, I won’t be able to do an update on Tuesday evening. Therefore, I will publish my next update Monday night, even if it is incomplete. In the meantime, stay safe, and always, be kind.

~Bonnie