COVID-19 Update 27 September 2021

COVID-19 Update 27 September 2021

The next full update is scheduled for next MONDAY, October 4.(Changes since “last week” are from Monday, Sept 20 to Tuesday, Sept 28)

Salem since last update: 77 new cases.
Total: 3,371 confirmed cases in Salem
We now have 60 active cases (53 last week)
The daily average of active cases in Salem this week is 59.
1 out of every 9 Salem residents has been infected.
Salem’s new cases per 100K for 14 days: 341 (274 last week)
Salem’s Positivity Rate for the past 2 weeks: 5.7%. (Last week: 4.2%).
Salem’s new cases account for 2.3% of the new cases reported this week. Last week we were responsible for 1.7%. (Salem has 2.2% of NH’s population.)
Fully vaccinated Salem residents: 14,401 (48.1%). Change from last week: +58 people (+0.0)
Partially vaccinated Salem residents: 15,586 (52.1%). Change from last week: +16 people (0.0%).

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

New cases of COVID-19 cases in NH this week: 3,335. (2,776 last week)
1 out of every 11 NH residents has been infected. (Was 1:12 last week)
Of the new cases this week, 29 were healthcare workers (52 last week), and 45 were in long-term care facilities (56 last week). 2 deaths this week were from long-term care facilities.
Active COVID-19 cases in NH: 3,595 (3,769 last week.) There were 155 active cases on June 28.
Recovered in NH this week: 3,461. (2,381 last week.)
State Level of Transmission: Substantial in all counties
New patients hospitalized this week because of COVID-19: 17 (7 last week.)
Current patients hospitalized because of COVID-19: 143 (139 one week ago)
New admissions to ICU this week because of COVID-19: 5 (0 last week)
New deaths attributed to COVID-19 reported in NH this week: 19 (15 last week.)
Total NH individuals fully vaccinated: About 54.4% of our population, a one-week increase of 0.1%. 59.7% are partially vaccinated, a one-week increase of 0.0%.

“Choice has consequence. If your personal choice harms someone else, you are responsible for that harm.” “We live in community with others; as such, we have a responsibility – both moral and patriotic – to protect the public health.”

Hello, Salem!

Here are some random thoughts from this past week:

NH DHHS has done some adjustments this week that are concerning, and they never updated the dashboards (despite two emails from me asking for the updated info.) Some might question what NH DHHS is trying to hide. I don’t think they are intentionally doing this; I suspect they are just incompetent. Or understaffed. The amount of screwups this past week are just not acceptable.

NH’s GOVERNMENT’S ACTIONS REGARDING COVID-19:

I shared this last week, but it is still in my mind, so I’m resharing it for those who missed it. Here’s an important article by State Rep. David Meuse, which he titled, “Extreme Legislation Will Prolong the Pandemic, Not End It.” Rep. Meuse shares that “the legislative filing period for the New Hampshire House of Representatives for the 2022 session ended last week with a flurry of bills that will tie the hands of public health officials when it comes to ending the COVID pandemic and when it comes to fighting communicable diseases in the future.”

The NH Department of Education has moved to block school-wide remote learning related to COVID-19. Story here.

Governor’s Press Conference on Sept 15:

Vast majority of new cases, hospitalizations and deaths are unvaccinated.
COVID will be around for a long time – perhaps years. Get vaccinated.
Out of about 760,000 fully vaccinated, <2,000 tested positive = 0.2% breakthrough.
Our hospitalization rate is very low; 20 fully vaccinated deaths
Governor predicts a surge this fall
- The number of new cases expected to be as bad or worse than last year.
- The number of deaths is not likely to reach the level we saw last year (December/January)
Governor is fast tracking licenses for medical personnel.
Available staffed hospital beds is a concern for ALL patients.
Elective procedures will not likely be delayed.
The Governor will not mandate vaccines in NH, but NH businesses can make those decisions. The Federal mandate will overrule any local decisions. Although he acknowledges that vaccines are necessary, the Governor is opposed to the federal mandate, and intends to have NH fight the federal mandate.
He will not mandate mask wearing, but that is the decision of NH businesses, and NH schools.
NH’s HHS Commissioner Shibinette told journalist to do investigative research to figure out which schools have outbreaks and are with or without mask mandates.
IMHO: These press conferences are becoming too much of a partisan bashing and the Governor should make a better attempt at keeping campaigning separate from press conferences.

VARIANTS

WHO dropped 3 COVID mutations from variants of interest list after they fail to take hold. Eta, Iota and Kappa were reclassified as “former variants of interest” and “variants under monitoring.” Story here.
‘The Biggest Threat’: COVID Variants Spread Among the Unvaccinated. Story here.
DELTA VARIANT (B.1.617.2): is ‘by far’ world’s most dominant coronavirus variant, says WHO.
“New” Variants: “For [any new variant] to become dominant it will have to outcompete with Delta. That will mean increased transmissibility, being able to bind to human host cells and infect people quicker than Delta currently does.”
- MU and C.1.2 were both covered extensively in my recent updates. These appear to not be of not much concern in the US, as there is very little new news on either variant.
- Two new variants made the news in the past week or two. I covered A.23.1 last week, but there is no new news this week. The R.1 Variant came to my attention this week, but it appears that it is not spreading significantly in the US.
- R.1 Variant: R.1 is not yet reported as a variant of concern although it has “several mutations of importance” and “demonstrates evidence of increasing virus transmissibility.”
  - New COVID Strain Has Reached the U.S. — Details here.
  - Dangerously mutated COVID variant detected in 47 U.S. states. 2,259 Americans have been found with the R.1 strain which was first detected in the country on March 15, 2020.
  - R.1: Another In The Growing List Of SARS-CoV-2 Variants — Article updated to mention that R.1 is no longer spreading significantly in the United States. This version highlights the R.1 variant’s capability to initiate breakthrough infection in fully-vaccinated elderly populations. Story here.

VACCINES

CDC study says COVID-19 can spread in vaccinated, although severe illness was “more common among the unvaccinated. The hospitalization rate was almost 10 times higher for them compared with those who got the shots.” Story here.

ADDITIONAL SUGGESTED READING

Why are so many vaccinated people in hospital? (It’s actually a good thing!) Story here.
The State of COVID in the US – an update on the pandemic with four charts.
Vital Statistics: Provisional Life Expectancy Estimates for 2020 — “The decline of 1.5 years in life expectancy between 2019 and 2020 was primarily due to increases in mortality due to COVID-19 (73.8% of the negative contribution), unintentional injuries (11.2%), homicide (3.1%), diabetes (2.5%), and Chronic liver disease and cirrhosis (2.3%) (The decline in life expectancy would have been even greater were it not for the offsetting effects of decreases in mortality due to cancer (45.2%), Chronic lower respiratory diseases (CLRD) (20.8%), heart disease (5.0%), suicide (4.6%), and certain conditions originating in the perinatal period (4.0%).” Story here. See below my calendar for graph based on this article.

My next update is scheduled for next Monday, as long as NH DHHS does their job on time. In the meantime, stay safe, and always, be kind.

~Bonnie

This “week:” Monday, Sept 20 to Tuesday, Sept 28)

On Tuesday, September 21, 2021, DHHS announced 186 new positive test results for COVID-19 for Monday, September 20. Today’s results include 166 people who tested positive by PCR test and 20 who tested positive by antigen test. DHHS also announced 25 cases from Sunday, September 19 (7 by PCR test and 18 by antigen test). There are now 3,603 current COVID-19 cases diagnosed in New Hampshire.

On Wednesday, September 22, 2021, DHHS announced 286 new positive test results for COVID-19 for Tuesday, September 21. Today’s results include 180 people who tested positive by PCR test and 106 who tested positive by antigen test. DHHS also announced an additional 93 new cases from Monday, September 20 (63 by PCR test and 30 by antigen test) for a new total of 279. There are now 3,496 current COVID-19 cases diagnosed in New Hampshire.

On Thursday, September 23, 2021, DHHS announced 304 new positive test results for COVID-19 for Wednesday, September 22. Today’s results include 243 people who tested positive by PCR test and 61 who tested positive by antigen test. DHHS also announced an additional 93 new cases from Tuesday, September 21 (49 by PCR test and 44 by antigen test) for a new total of 379. There are now 3,983 current COVID-19 cases diagnosed in New Hampshire.

Additionally, DHHS has also announced rapid test results from previous days that have not yet been reported. The New Hampshire COVID-19 reports rely on a complex automated information technology system supporting providers and facilities data uploads; this system failed to process antigen test data accurately between 9/15/2021 and 9/20/2021. DHHS and the NH Department of Information Technology have resolved the issue, which has resulted in additional rapid test results for the following dates:

09/15: 61 new cases for an updated total of 621 cases
09/16: 85 new cases for an updated total of 473 cases
09/17: 77 new cases for an updated total of 511 cases
09/18: 82 new cases for an updated total of 491 cases
09/19: 54 new cases for an updated total of 263 cases
09/20: 22 new cases for an updated total of 301 cases

On Friday, September 24, 2021, DHHS announced 625 new positive test results for COVID-19 for Thursday, September 23. Today’s results include 306 people who tested positive by PCR test and 319 who tested positive by antigen test. DHHS also announced an additional 115 new cases from Wednesday, September 22 (63 by PCR test and 52 by antigen test) for a new total of 419. There are now 3,852 current COVID-19 cases diagnosed in New Hampshire.

On Monday, September 27, 2021, DHHS announced 179 new positive test results for COVID-19 for September 26. Today’s results include 113 people who tested positive by PCR test and 66 who tested positive by antigen test. DHHS also announced an additional 113 new cases from Thursday, September 23 (81 by PCR test and 32 by antigen test, for a new total of 738); 509 cases from Friday, September 24 (330 by PCR and 179 by antigen test); and 451 cases from “Sunday” [should be Saturday], September 25 (295 by PCR and 156 by antigen test). There are now 3,595 current COVID-19 cases diagnosed in New Hampshire.

On Tuesday, September 28, 2021, DHHS announced 362 new positive test results for COVID-19 for September 27. Today’s results include 259 people who tested positive by PCR test and 103 who tested positive by antigen test. There are now 3,433 current COVID-19 cases diagnosed in New Hampshire. A new death is also reported for the week of Sept. 6, 2021: A female from Carroll County, aged 30-39.

Each day, DHHS says that “Test results for previous days are still being processed and updated case counts for prior days will be reflected on the COVID-19 interactive dashboard.” And, “Several cases are still under investigation. Additional information from ongoing investigations will be incorporated into future COVID-19 updates.” Percentages shown are % of new cases.

• • • • • • DIAGNOSTIC TESTS IN NH • • • • • •

Total people who have tested positive: 118,706 (115,401) last week)
New positive cases this week by my math: 3,305 (3,075 last week)
New positive cases per DHHS: 3,335 (2,776 last week)
Rockingham County (22.78% of NH’s population)
- Total positive tests in Rockingham County: 28,666 (27,930 last week)
- New cases this week: 736 (589 last week)
- % of this week’s cases from Rockingham County: 22.3%

• • • • • NEW CASES • • • • • •

DHHS reports that the new cases this week (Tuesday to Sunday) reside in the following counties and NH’s two major cities:

Belknap: 227; was 176
Carroll: 121; was 110
Cheshire: 204; was 176
Coos: 140; was 97
Grafton: 180; was 159
Manchester: 528; was 437
Merrimack: 253; was 193
Nashua: 421; was 334
Rest of Hillsborough: 194; was 133
Rockingham County: 731; was 559
Strafford: 346; was 317
Sullivan: 145; was 118

The county of residence is being determined for 54 new cases. Several cases are still under investigation. Additional information from ongoing investigations will be incorporated into future COVID-19 updates.

• • • • • ACTIVE CASES • • • • • •

NH has 3,595 active cases. Last week we had 3,769. We were down to 214 cases as recently as June 28.
All counties have active cases: (Current vs. Last week)
- Belknap: 191 (214 last week)
- Carroll: 109 (153)
- Cheshire: 175 (258)
- Coos: 156 (113)
- Grafton: 167 (175)
- Manchester: 255 (227)
- Merrimack: 366 (431)
- Nashua: 159 (160)
- Rest of Hillsborough: 543 (545)
- Rockingham: 649 (719)
- Strafford: 346 (397)
- Sullivan: 147 (145)
- Unknown: 54 (62)
- Salem (27; was 18 last week)

• • • • • CUMULATIVE CASES • • • • • •

1 out of every 9 Salem residents has been infected
1 out of every 11 residents of Rockingham County
1 out of every 11 residents of NH have been infected (1:12 last week)

• • • • • • RECOVERED • • • • • •

Total recovered: 113,635 (110,174 last week)
Recovered this week: 1,505 (1,492 last week)
Percentage of diagnosed cases that have recovered: 95.7% (98.3% in late July.)

• • • • • COMMUNITY TRANSMISSION • • • • • •

Per NH Department of Health and Human Services: A community is assigned an overall level based on the highest-level determination for any specific metric. NH Metrics are:

New Cases per 100k over 14 days: Scale: Minimal: <50; Moderate: 50 – 100; Substantial: >100.
Average PCR Test Positivity Rate over 7 days: Scale: Minimal: <5%; Moderate: 5% – 10; Substantial: >10%

NH Level of Transmission: Substantial (Last week: Substantial)
NH New Cases per 100K over 14 days: 454 (387 last week)
Every county in NH, as well as Manchester and Nashua, are at Substantial risk for community transmission.

Cases per 100K residents:

NH: 454 (NH last week: 387)
- Belknap: 556 (542 last week)
- Carroll: 433 (464 last week)
- Cheshire: 434 (447 last week)
- Coos: 814 (437 last week)
- Grafton: 339 (264 last week)
- Manchester: 398 (362 last week)
- Merrimack: 460 (425 last week)
- Nashua: 325 (272 last week)
- Rest of Hillsborough excluding Manchester and Nashua: 439 (369 last week)
- Rockingham: 381 (367 last week)
- Strafford: 456 (451 last week)
- Sullivan: 591 (433 last week)

Positivity Rate:

NH: 4.8% (was 5.0% last week)
- Belknap: 6.8% (6.8% last week)
- Carroll: 5.5% (6.7% last week)
- Cheshire: 3.0% (3.1% last week)
- Coos: 8.9% (13.1% last week)
- Grafton: 1.6% (1.6% last week)
- Manchester: 5.4% (4.0% last week)
- Merrimack: 5.2% (5.8% last week)
- Nashua: 4.9% (5.1% last week)
- Rest of Hillsborough excluding Manchester and Nashua: 5.3% (5.4% last week)
- Rockingham: 5.2% (5.4% last week)
- Strafford: 5.8% (5.0% last week)
- Sullivan: 6.3% (5.5% last week)

There are 132 NH communities with a positivity rate of more than 0. (109 a week ago). There are 130 communities with a positivity rate higher than 2%. (108 a week ago). 93 communities have more than 5% (80 a week ago). 29 communities have a positivity rate of more than 10%. (26 a week ago.)

• • • • • • HOSPITALIZATIONS IN NH • • • • • •

Currently hospitalized: 143 (Last week: 139)
Staffed hospital beds available: 16.1% (16.8% last week)
Total hospitalized patients: 1,768
New people hospitalized from NH: 17 (Last week: 7)
Percentage of those who have been infected that have been hospitalized: 1.5%
Total admitted to ICU: 522
New ICU admissions this week: 5 (0 last week)
Staffed adult ICU beds available: 11.6% (Last week: 17.6%)
Total hospitalized patients from Rockingham County: 383
New hospitalized patients from Rockingham County: 5 since last week
Ventilators available: 78.0% (79.9% last week)

• • • • • • DEATHS IN NH • • • • • •

Total fatalities in NH associated with COVID-19: 1,477
Lives lost this week: 19
Lives lost last week: 15
Lives lost from those in Long-term care settings: 0
Persons over 60 years of age who died this week: 14
Persons under 60 years of age who died this week: 5
NH Residents diagnosed with COVID-19 that died: 1.24%
Total lives lost in Rockingham County: 288
Lives lost in Rockingham County this week: 2

• • • • • • CHANGES BY AGES • • • • • •

(Totals showing changes since last Monday.)

0-9: New Infections: 7742 (+496); Hospitalizations: 17, (+1); Deaths: 0, (+0)
10-19: New Infections: 15378 (+637); Hospitalizations: 15, (+1); Deaths: 0, (+0)
20-29: New Infections: 23263 (+544); Hospitalizations: 41, (+0); Deaths: 1, (+0)
30-39: New Infections: 17788 (+565); Hospitalizations: 80, (+2); Deaths: 9, (+2)
40-49: New Infections: 15486 (+439); Hospitalizations: 134, (+0); Deaths: 17, (+1)
50-59: New Infections: 17624 (+404); Hospitalizations: 255, (+5); Deaths: 46, (+2)
60-69: New Infections: 11565 (+309); Hospitalizations: 393, (+2); Deaths: 158, (+4)
70-79: New Infections: 5686 (+166); Hospitalizations: 425, (+3); Deaths: 355, (+4)
80+: New Infections: 4421 (+65); Hospitalizations: 408, (+3); Deaths: 891, (+6)
Unknown: New Infections: 115 (+42); Hospitalizations: 0, (+0); Deaths: 0, (+0)

New Infections in the Past 4 Weeks vs. All NH Cases

0-9: 16.3% vs. 12.9% (+4%)
10-19: 16.4% vs. 19.5% (+3.4%)
20-29: 15.6% vs. 14.9% (-3.1%)
30-39: 11.9% vs. 13% (+0.7%)
40-49: 12.6% vs. 14.8% (-1.1%)
50-59: 9.7% vs. 9.7% (-2.2%)
60-69: 4.2% vs. 4.8% (0%)
70-79: 2.6% vs. 3.7% (-0.6%)
80+: 0.1% vs. 0.1% (-1.1%)
Unknown: 0% vs. 100% (0%)

Additional Age Stats

993 children under 18 are included in this week’s new cases. (833 last week)
29.8% of new cases announced by DHHS this week are kids under 18 years old. (30.0% last week)
School Dashboard: I continue to question the accuracy of the School Dashboard, although it has been revamped to cover what appears to be this school year. I have heard of cases affecting Salem students at Lancaster, but these are still not reflected on this dashboard.
- Salem High School: 1 active, 4 recovered
- Woodbury Middle School: 1 active, 3 recovered.
  - 2 recovered on onsite; 0 recovered offsite, 3 recovered on both.
  - Salem also has one student recovered offsite, with no school listed.
Under 60: 3,085 new cases this week; 9 hospitalizations, 5 deaths
Last week: 2,614 new cases; 5 hospitalizations, 3 deaths
60+: 540 new cases; 8 hospitalizations; 14 deaths
Last week: 455 new cases; 2 hospitalizations; 12 deaths

• • • • • • Institutional Outbreaks in NH • • • • • •

NH DHHS reported 12 institutional outbreaks on Thursday, Sept. 24. Six are new since my last update. Six institutions were removed from the outbreak list this week. The outbreaks, with changes from last week, are:

Alpine Health Center: 57 residents (+25), 15 staff (+2) and 6 deaths (+1)
Carriage Hill Assisted Living: 8 residents, 4 staff (was 2 before???)
Cheshire County Department of Corrections: 12 Residents, 0 staff (new this week)
Colonial Poplin Nursing & Rehabilitation: 8 residents, 4 staff, 1 new death
Federal Correctional Institution in Berlin: 36 residents, 9 staff (+3)
Hillsborough County Department of corrections: 14 residents, 2 staff. (New this week)
Peabody Home: 3 residents, 3 staff (New this week)
Ridgewood Center: 11 residents (+1), 5 staff +5)
Riverside Rest Home: 8 residents, 7 staff (New this week)
Rockingham County Nursing Home and Rehab: 7 residents (+3), 8 staff (+2), 1 death
Villa Crest Nursing & Retirement Center: 8 residents, 1 staff (New this week)
Woodlawn Nursing Home 8 residents, 4 staff (New this week)
All other outbreaks, which can be seen here, were closed as of this outbreak update.

The outbreaks removed from the list this week are: Bellamy Field Assisted Living, Epsom Health Center, Laconia Rehabilitation Center, Maple Wood Cheshire County Nursing Home, Pleasant View Nursing Home, and Windham Terrace Assisted Living

• • • • • • Vaccinations in NH • • • • • •

NH DHHS reports 762,371 (54.4%) people are fully vaccinated, an increase of 1,149 people (0.1%) since last week. Last week the increase was 2,346 people.

840,343 (59.7%) NH residents have been partially vaccinated, an increase of 1,209 (0.0%)
people since last week. Last week the increase was 7,006 people.

• • • • • • VARIANTS IN NH • • • • • •

Per WMUR, as of Sept 28, NH had:

Number of people diagnosed with COVID-19: 119,068 (115,401 last week)
Number of B.1.1.7 variant (Alpha; UK) cases: 1,258 (No change)
Number of B.1.351 variant (Beta; South Africa) cases: 2 (No change)
Number of P.1 variant (Gamma; Brazil) cases: 203 (204 last week???)
Number of B.1.617.2 variant (Delta; India) cases: 940 (853 last week)
Earlier reports included the B.1.427 & B.1.429 (Epsilon; California) but they have not been included for some time. The Mu variant is not reported here, either, although other reports state that it has been found here, and the new R.1 has been found in at least 47 states, so the odds are high that it has been detected here in NH

These are not simply numbers. We must not forget that these are all someone’s husband or wife, mother or father, sister or brother, son or daughter, friend or neighbor.

The chart above was published in the September issue of the AARP Bulletin. It is based on information from the article, “Vital Statistics: Provisional Life Expectancy Estimates for 2020,” which was published by the CDC.

FINDING INFORMATION:

The State lists information on where to get vaccinated, where to get tested, and what to do if you test positive or were exposed to COVID on their website.

COVID-19 SYMPTOMS – Updated early September 2021

Concerns continue to grow for the Delta variant of COVID-19, which now accounts for 93% of all new COVID-19 infections. Descriptions of symptoms have been updated:

Ranking of Symptoms for Covid-19 Infection in the Unvaccinated

Headache
Sore Throat
Runny Nose
Fever
Persistent cough

Loss of smell now comes in at number 9, and shortness of breath is way down the list at number 30.

Ranking of Symptoms for Covid-19 Infection in the Partially Vaccinated

Headache
Runny Nose
Sore throat
Sneezing
Persistent Cough

Sneezing, which was never thought to be a symptom in the original Covid strain, is now ranked more common than a cough, for a reported symptom in those with only one dose of the vaccine.

Ranking of Symptoms for Covid-19 Infection in the Fully Vaccinated

Headache
Runny Nose
Sneezing
Sore throat
Loss of smell

A cough ranks 8 on the list for fully vaccinated people, and a fever ranks 12. Shortness of breath is way down the list at number 29.

Breakthrough COVID-19 symptoms:

While some vaccinated people are getting COVID, it is still rare, and 99.9% of all recent hospitalizations and deaths associated with COVID-19 are people who are not vaccinated.
CDC reports that 79% of those who are found to have breakthrough infections have a cough, headache, sore throat, myalgia and fever.
NBC says approximately 1 in 900 vaccinated people have had breakthrough infections. The vast majority of those had mild or no symptoms.