Posted on by Bonnie

COVID-19 Update November 18

COVID-19 Update November 18

  • Total: 568 confirmed cases in Salem today
  • 1 out of 52 Salem residents have been infected 
  • Salem Today: 26 new cases today; 123 active cases

Community Transmission (per NH Department of Health and Human Services): The overall level of community transmission is defined using three metrics.  A community is then assigned an overall level based on the highest-level determination for any specific metric. The metric which is changing the most right now is the number of new cases.

  • NH Community Transmission Metrics:
    • New Cases per 100k over 14 days: 
      • Scale: Minimal: <50; Moderate: 50 – 100; Substantial: >100. 
      • Daily average:  310.2. Substantial
    • New hospitalizations per 100k over 14 days:
      • Scale: Minimal: <10; Moderate: 10 – 20; Substantial: >20, 
      • Daily average:  1.9%
    • Average PCR Test Positivity Rate over 7 days:
      • Scale: Minimal: <5%; Moderate: 5% – 10%; Substantial: >10%
      • Daily average: 3.6%
    • New Hampshire’s Level of Transmission: Substantial
  • Rockingham County Transmission:
    • New Cases per 100k over 14 days:  299.8
    • New hospitalizations per 100k over 14 days: 0.3
    • Average PCR Test Positivity Rate over 7 days:  4.3
    • Rockingham County’s Level of Transmission: Substantial
  • Other NH Locations
    • All of our other counties and both of NH’s biggest cities are at a substantial level of community transmission.
    • All of these locations had over 100 new cases per 100k residents for the past 2 weeks, putting this metric into a substantial level of community transmission.
    • All of these locations have had less than 10 new hospitalizations per 100,000 residents for the past two weeks. Although this metric is at the minimal level, the new cases per 100K take precedence.
    • All of these locations have a positivity rate of less than 5% over the last week, except Nashua and Manchester. All of the locations are at a minimal positivity rate, except for the two cities, which are at a moderate level.
    • Individual communities can have a different level of transmission than other communities in a county.

• • • • • • TODAY’S SPOTLIGHT • • • • • •

  • Today in NH, the number of new cases is 446 per NH DHHS; the number of cumulative cases went up by 447. Today is the second day with more than 400 new cases in a 24-hour period. The one-week daily average is 372.
  • 542 Salem residents have been infected with COVID-19. 15% of all Salem residents who have been infected, 87 people, have been in the past week. 
  • Today, 123 Salem residents are considered by NH DHHS to be infectious. That is higher than our previous peak, which was 118 active infections on May 19. On Sept 30, seven weeks ago, we had less than 5.
  • 45 NH children under 18 are included in today’s new cases. 
  • The number of persons being monitored in NH has increased for 14 of the previous 18 days. Today was another new record.
  • There are 3,767 active cases in NH today, the 8th consecutive day of exceeding the old record of 2,290 which we saw on May 19, and the 19th consecutive day with an increase, despite the number of people who have recovered over these same 19 days. 
  • NH DHHS stopped announcing the number of new hospitalized patients within the past week. Based on the number of hospitalized patients yesterday, (817) and the number reported today (822), it appears that five more people were hospitalized for the first time today.
  • The number of people currently hospitalized with COVID-19 is now 91. The peak was May 12, when we were up to 121 patients. The low was September 12, when we only had a total of six COVID patients in NH hospitals. There has been an increase in the hospital census by 14.
  • One more person has been admitted to the ICU. There have been 13 ICU patients in the past two weeks. The state does not report the number of people who are currently in the ICU, only the cumulative total, which is now 272. We do not know the ages of those patients.
  • We lost two more people due to COVID-19 during the 24-hour covered by this report, bringing the number of NH people who have died to 504. We have lost 12 people in the past week due to COVID-19.
  • I have updated several of my tables and a new graph below.

Communities:

  • NH DHHS says that the new cases reside in Rockingham (117), Hillsborough County other than Manchester and Nashua (53), Strafford (34), Coos (26), Belknap (24), Merrimack (21), Cheshire (15), Grafton (11), Carroll (4), and Sullivan (3) counties, and in the cities of Manchester (50) and Nashua (43). The county of residence is being determined for forty-six new cases. 
  • Active cases:
    • 228 people were reported as “recovered” today; these are reflected in today’s changes. 
    • 13 of the communities that had 20 active cases yesterday have fewer active cases today than yesterday.
    • Six communities dropped below 20 active cases: Berlin, Epping, Hopkinton, Pembroke, Somersworth, and Wolfeboro.
    • Five communities — Colebrook, Farmington, Hampstead, and Meredith— now have more than 20 active cases each and have been added to the list.
    • There are now 39 NH communities with more than 20 active cases. Between them, these 39 communities have 3,767 active cases, accounting for 70% of all active cases. 
    • Hooksett and Goffstown now have more than 50 active cases each.
    • Notable net changes in active cases from yesterday: Manchester: 446 (+33). Nashua: 391 (+21). Salem: 123 (+19). Stewartstown: 53 (+14). Derry: 83 (+11). Hudson: 81 (+10). Colebrook: 24 (+7). Hampton: 48 (+7). Hampstead: 21 (+6). Laconia: 46 (+6). Hooksett: 50 (+5). Meredith: 23 (+5). Merrimack: 57 (+5). Concord: 79 (+4). Durham: 137 (+4). Farmington: 20 (+4). Londonderry: 61 (+4). Rochester: 60 (+4). Belmont: 23 (+3). Keene: 35 (+3). Litchfield: 24 (+3). Milford: 25 (+2). Seabrook: 25 (+2). Amherst: 21 (+1). Goffstown: 50 (+1). Newport: 43 (+1). Portsmouth: 73 (+1). Raymond: 44 (+1). Rindge: 36 (+1). Dover: 88 (+0). Sandown: 27 (+0). Tilton: 27 (+0). Weare: 20 (-1). Pelham: 37 (-2). Plymouth: 52 (-2). Warner: 44 (-3). Exeter: 30 (-5). Windham: 45 (-5). Bedford: 57 (-24).  
  • Cumulative Cases         
    • Since yesterday, four more communities—Colebrook, Fremont, New Boston and New Ipswich— have had a 50th cumulative cases. 
    • Hampstead, Keene, Sandown and Seabrook have now had over 100 total infections.
    • Some of the communities with 50 or more total cases, and significant changes in cumulative cases since yesterday are: Manchester: 2958 (+52). Nashua: 1660 (+41). Salem: 568 (+26). Derry: 581 (+14). Stewartstown: 65 (+14). Hudson: 336 (+12). Durham: 333 (+11). Hampton: 167 (+9). Londonderry: 337 (+8). Merrimack: 282 (+8). Rochester: 244 (+8). Colebrook: 55 (+7). Dover: 341 (+7). Laconia: 122 (+7). Bedford: 531 (+6). Fremont: 51 (+6). Hampstead: 101 (+6). Hooksett: 202 (+6). Keene: 102 (+6). Meredith: 46 (+6). Atkinson: 68 (+5). Concord: 389 (+5). Farmington: 63 (+5). Goffstown: 375 (+5). Milford: 189 (+5). Plaistow: 114 (+5). Tuftonboro: 5 (+5). Alton: 57 (+4). Kingston: 48 (+4). Pelham: 182 (+4). Portsmouth: 280 (+4). Sandown: 100 (+4). Seabrook: 102 (+4).  

• • • • • • DIAGNOSTIC TESTS IN NH • • • • • •

  • New positive cases by my math (Total of today’s cases minus yesterday’s total): 446
  • New positive cases per DHHS: 447
    • 326 PCR tests
    • 121 Antigen tests
  • Children under 18 in new cases: 45
  • Total positive cases in NH: 15,749
  • Percentage of today’s tests that are positive per DHHS: 2.4%
  • Total PCR test results reported today (Positive results plus negative results): 2,251
  • The daily average of diagnostic (PCR) tests reported from 7 days ago to today: 2,300
  • New negative results reported today: 1,805
  • Total negative cases in NH: 375,402

• • • • • • ROCKINGHAM COUNTY • • • • • • 

  • Total cases in Rockingham County: 3,776
  • New cases in Rockingham County: 117
  • Rockingham County: New cases per 100K residents: 37.8
  • Rockingham County 1-week average per 100K residents: 26.3
  • Rockingham County Positivity Rate: 4.3%
  • Percent of all cases from Rockingham County: 24.0%
  • Percent of all cases from either Hillsborough County or Rockingham County: 70.0%.

• • • • • • ACTIVE CASES • • • • • •

  • Active cases in NH: 3,767
  • Active cases in Rockingham County: 804
  • Percent of NH’s active cases that are in Rockingham County: 21.3%

• • • • • • OTHER TEST RESULTS • • • • • • 

  • New antibody tests: 33
  • Total antibody tests (No break downs of positive vs. negative): 32,709
  • The daily average of antibody tests reported from 7 days ago to today: 31

• • • • • • CHANGES BY AGES • • • • • •  
(Total infections, percentage of all infections, and increase from yesterday to today)

  • 0-9: 572=4% (+17).
  • 10-19: 1,574=10% (+46).
  • 20-29: 2,974=19% (+84).
  • 30-39: 2,228=13% (+60).
  • 40-49: 2,022=11% (+49).
  • 50-59: 2,395=17% (+76).
  • 60-69: 1,748=11% (+50).
  • 70-79: 970=6% (+25).
  • 80+: 1,247=7% (+31).
  • Unknown: 19=2% (+8).

• • • • • • RECOVERED IN NH • • • • • • 

  • Announced today: 228
  • Total Recovered: 11,478
  • Percentage of diagnosed cases that have recovered: 72.9%

• • • • • • HOSPITALIZATIONS IN NH • • • • • • 

  • New: 5
  • Current: 91
  • Total Hospitalized: 822
  • Percentage of those who have been infected that have been hospitalized: 5.22%

• • • • • • DEATHS IN NH • • • • • • 

  • Lives lost today: 2
  • Persons over 60 years of age who died today: 2
  • Persons under 60 years of age who died today: 0
  • Total fatalities in NH associated with COVID-19: 504
  • NH Residents diagnosed with COVID-19 that died: 3.2%
  • Lives lost in Rockingham today: 0

These are not simply numbers. We must not forget that these are all someone’s husband or wife, mother or father, sister or brother, son or daughter, friend or neighbor.

“It is hard to be defensive toward a danger which you have never imagined existed.” 

― John Christopher, The Pool of Fire


Hello, Salem!

In April, the experts thought that there would be seasonal coronavirus waves. In the August 4th edition of  Business Insider, they changed their tune. Instead, they are now likening the pandemic to “a forest fire looking for human wood to burn.” WHO says the pandemic is probably “going to be one big wave,” with “peaks and valleys in different locations at different times.”  “This [virus] is behaving differently [than any other known virus].” 

We still have so much to learn. We don’t know how to put out this fire. We do know that the majority of the deaths are in our seniors. We know that long-term health consequences do not have an age limit. We do know it can take months for some people to recover; there are enough of them to have a name: “Long Haulers.”We’ve learned that there is a strong chance of cardiac issues and that there can be mental health issues amongst people who have recovered from COVID-19.  We know that there can be organ damage, including lung damage and brain damage. 

How much more is there to learn about this disease and this virus? What we don’t know is what we don’t yet know. THAT is what concerns me the most.

As NH has its second worse day, and Salem has its worst day, we need to be extra cautious. Don’t become a statistic! Until we understand this better, please stay safe, and always, be kind.

~Bonnie

It took 43 days before NH reached it’s first 1,000 confirmed diagnoses. It took two days to go from 14,000 to 15,000.

This screenshot comes from https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm?s_cid=mm6942e2_w

This report is explained here:
https://www.clickondetroit.com/health/2020/10/20/cdc-from-january-to-october-us-had-299k-more-deaths-than-in-previous-years/

Useful links

Sources used to create these reports:

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