Posted on by Bonnie

COVID-19 Update October 21

COVID-19 Update October 21

  • Total: 370 confirmed cases in Salem
  • 1 out of every 80 Salem residents have been infected
  • Salem Today: 3 new cases, 16 active cases 

Community Transmission (per NH Department of Health and Human Services)

The overall level of community transmission is defined using three metrics.  A community is then assigned an overall level based on the highest-level determination for any specific metric.  

Since discovering the Community Transmission info on the State’s website about two weeks ago, I’ve been watching how these numbers have been changing. There are very minimal changes in the hospitalization rate and the positivity rate; things would need to get much worse before we see significant changes in those metrics. For now, I’ll concentrate on the number of new cases, as that is where we are seeing the most changes.

  • NH Community Transmission Metrics:
    • New Cases per 100k over 14 days: 
      • Scale: Minimal: <50; Moderate: 50 – 100; Substantial: >100. 
      • Today: 1,123 cases; Daily average: 82.8 (Moderate)
    • New hospitalizations per 100k over 14 days:
      • Scale: Minimal: <10; Moderate: 10 – 20; Substantial: >20, 
      • Today: Total hospitalizations: 15 total; Daily average: 1.1
    • Average PCR Test Positivity Rate over 7 days:
      • Scale: Minimal: <5%; Moderate: 5% – 10%; Substantial: >10%
      • Today: Tests over last 7 days: 461.  Total. PCR Tests over last 7 days: 38,082 Daily average: 1.2%
  • Today’s Level of Transmission: Moderate
  • Rockingham County Transmission:
    • New Cases per 100k over 14 days: 88.0
    • New hospitalizations per 100k over 14 days: 1.0
    • Average PCR Test Positivity Rate over 7 days: 1.4
    • Rockingham County Transmission: Moderate
  • Other NH Locations
    • Manchester: Substantial. (124.5 new case average; 3.6 hospitalizations; 2.9% positivity.)
    • Nashua: Substantial (136.5 new case average; 1.1 hospitalizations; 2.0% positivity.)
    • Merrimack: Substantial (120.4 new case average; 2.0 hospitalizations; 1.9% positivity)
    • Hillsborough County excluding Manchester and Nashua (99.0 new case average): Moderate (barely)
    • Belknap County (59.0 new case average): Moderate
    • Strafford County (50.0 new case average): Minimal? (That’s what DHHS says, but it should be Moderate, based on their scale.)
    • Coos County: (38.0 new case average): Minimal
    • Grafton County: (34.5 new case average): Minimal
    • Cheshire County: (27.5 new case average): Minimal
    • Sullivan County: (18.5 new case average): Minimal

• • • • • • TODAY’S SPOTLIGHT • • • • • •

  • Today was the second day in a row that three Salem residents have been diagnosed with COVID-19. We have added 14 people in the past week, and 26 in the last two weeks. 
  • Salem now has 16 people who are considered to be infectious. Our total may have gone up by 3 overnight, but our active cases went down by 3.  We have 8 fewer active cases than we had two days ago.
  • In Salem, for every 80 people, one has been infected with COVID-19 since this global pandemic began. 
  • By comparison, Rockingham has one out of every 128 residents infected, and NH has one out of every 137 residents who have been infected. 
  • Manchester: 1 out of 49. Bedford: 1 out of 51. Goffstown: 1 out of 64. Derry: 1 out of 76. Nashua, like Salem, is also 1 out of 80. 
  • Another 114 people people were considered “Recovered” today. That makes 392 in the past two days, and 582 in the past week.
  • Communities:
    • Notable changes in active cases from yesterday to today:
      • There are now only 8 communities with more than 20 active cases. Between them, these 8 communities have 381 total cases, accounting for 48% of all active cases. (Shown: # of active cases and change from yesterday). 
        • With 114 people who have “recovered,” all but one of these communities have fewer active cases today than yesterday.
        • Concord: 42 (+6). Nashua: 85 (-11). Manchester 93 (-5). Derry 23 (-5). Portsmouth: 24 (-3). Warner: 42 (-2). Bedford: 52 (-1). Londonderry 20 (-1).
        • Hudson now has 19 active cases, so they have been removed from this list. 
    • Some of the communities with significant changes in cumulative cases:
      • Manchester (+10 each). Concord (+9). Derry (+4) And, with three more people infected, were Salem, Bedford, Hudson, Goffstown, and Milford.
      • Auburn has passed its 50th person to be diagnosed with COVID-19.
  • Although NH has been adding new cases at a rapid pace, we have only added three new hospitalized patients in the past week, and the hospital census of COVID-19 patients across the state is 14.
  • NH has lost a NH resident from COVID-19 every day but one over the past week. We’ve lost 10 people in this past week. 

• • • • • • DIAGNOSTIC TESTS IN NH • • • • • • 

  • New positive cases by my math (Total of today’s cases minus yesterday’s total): 89
  • New positive cases per DHHS: 92
    • 52 PCR tests
    • 40 Antigen tests
  • Children under 18 in new cases: 8
  • Total positive cases in NH: 9,917
  • Percentage of today’s tests that are positive per DHHS: 1.1%
  • Total PCR tests results reported today (Positive results plus negative results: 2,201
  • The daily average of diagnostic (PCR) tests reported from 7 days ago to today: 2,102
  • New negative results reported today: 2,112
  • Total negative cases in NH: 308,375

• • • • • • ROCKINGHAM COUNTY • • • • • •

  • Total cases in Rockingham County: 2,426
  • New cases in Rockingham County: 22
  • Rockingham County: New cases per 100K residents: 7.1
  • Rockingham County 1-week average per 100K residents: 6.5
  • Rockingham County Positivity Rate: 1.4%
  • Percent of all cases from Rockingham County: 24.5%
  • Percent of all cases from either Hillsborough County or Rockingham County: 77%

• • • • • • ACTIVE CASES • • • • • •

  • Active cases in NH: 798
  • Active cases in Rockingham County: 165
  • Percent of NH’s active cases that are in Rockingham County: 20.7%. 

• • • • • • OTHER TEST RESULTS • • • • • • 

  • New antibody tests: 50
  • Total antibody tests (No break downs of positive vs. negative): 31,852
  • The daily average of antibody tests reported from 7 days ago to today: 33

• • • • • • CHANGES BY AGES • • • • • • 

  • 0-9: +3 (3% of all cases. 3% of new cases
  • 10-19: +9 (8% of all; 10% today) 
  • 20-29: +33 (18% of all; 37% today) 
  • 30-39: +14 (14% of all; +16% today)
  • 40-49: +13 (13% of all; 15% today)
  • 50-59: +9 (15% of all; 10% today)
  • 60-69: +7 (12% of all; 8% today)
  • 70-79: +0 (7% of all; 0% today) 
  • 80+: +2 (10% of all; 2% today)
  • Unknown: -1 (0% of all; -1% today)
  • In the past three days, age 20-29 went up by 1% of total infections, and age 80+ went down by one %.
  • In the past two and a half weeks, age 10-19 went up by 1% of total infections, and age 50-59 went down by 1%.

• • • • • • RECOVERED IN NH • • • • • • 

  • Announced today: 114
  • Total Recovered: 8,650
  • Percentage of diagnosed cases that have recovered: 87.2%

• • • • • • HOSPITALIZATIONS IN NH • • • • • • 

  • New: 0
  • Current: 14
  • Total Hospitalized: 763
  • Percentage of those who have been infected that have been hospitalized: 7.69%

• • • • • • DEATHS IN NH • • • • • • 

  • Lives lost today: 1
  • Persons over 60 years of age who died today: 1
  • Persons under 60 years of age who died today: 0
  • Total fatalities in NH associated with COVID-19: 469
  • NH Residents diagnosed with COVID-19 that died: 4.73%
  • Lives lost in Rockingham today: 0

These are not simply numbers. We must not forget that these are all someone’s husband or wife, mother or father, sister or brother, son or daughter, friend or neighbor.


“When we forget the virus is with us, we lose our advantage … Our response should not be rooted politically but entirely unified in defense of safety and well-being.”

Dr. Michael Delahanty, Superintendent of Salem Schools

NHPR reports that “As N.H. Sees Continued Rise In COVID-19 Cases, Experts Say To Prepare For More.” It’s gonna be a long winter. Be smart, stay safe, and always, be kind.

~Bonnie

This is a screenshot of the school dashboard, although I question how accurate this is. As far as I have been able to determine, this newest case at Salem High School, and one of the recovered students at that school are not Salem students. Also, I believe that North Salem Elementary and Woodbury Middle School have not had an infection, despite what the School Dashboard says. I don’t know anything about GSAA.

This screenshot comes from https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm?s_cid=mm6942e2_w

This report is explained here:
https://www.clickondetroit.com/health/2020/10/20/cdc-from-january-to-october-us-had-299k-more-deaths-than-in-previous-years/

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Changes-by-month-877x1024.jpg

Useful links

Sources used to create these reports:

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